Date of Completion
The efficiency of markets is a prominent topic in the field of finance. Market efficiency has been thoroughly examined across many subsectors of finance; however thus far, existing research has sparsely covered the increasingly prominent sports betting market. This market is currently valued at roughly $10B per year (Grandview). In this article, we evaluate the efficiency of sports betting markets, using NHL betting lines and results from 2015-2020 to create a multivariate probit model which tests the market’s efficiency. Using a multivariate probit model to identify NHL money line bets with a relatively high probability of success compared to their implied probability, we generate significant profit and beat betting markets, generating an 8.5% ROI when tested against the 20-21 NHL season.
Luxton, Charles; Spizman, Joshua; and Moore, David, "Testing Efficiency in NHL Betting Markets" (2022). Honors Thesis. 444.