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Publication Date

April 2024

Rapid unplanned development, a primary cause of urban change, endangers ecosystems greatly. Quantifying ecosystem services helps portray the declining ecological functions caused by the urban land cover change. Dhaka, one of the most densely populated cities in the world, exerts little effort toward sustainability; affecting both the inner city and the outer periphery (peri-urban area) called extend Dhaka (5 km buffer from the city's border). This study examines Dhaka's urban growth impact on ecosystem service values (ESV) from 2004-2020 and projects these impacts to 2050, considering three scenarios: business as usual (BAU), conservation, and development. We employed Landsat images, different image classification techniques, the CA-Markov model for future simulation, and the global value coefficient for ESV. The research shows water bodies and tree covering change forecasting up to 2050. Due to fast urban growth in the expanding Dhaka city during 2004-2020, the total ESV declined (a decrease ESV of 211.92 million US dollars). If this pattern continues, the ESV will further drop $ 156 million by 2050. Consequently, ESV loss will be severe in outlying extended Dhaka city, and among the three forecasted scenarios, the development will lose most of its ESV. This study also suggests that for every one percent increase in total GDP, approximately 2 million dollars of ecosystem service loss results. In addition, significant changes in ecological functions, such as waste treatment, raw materials, habitat/ refugia, and water supply, caused the ESV to decline most. This concludes that appropriate planning and regulations to safeguard natural ecosystems will avoid future deterioration.

DOI

10.15365/cate.2024.170101

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