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  Garcetti for President

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  GARCETTI FOR PRESIDENT? ANGELENOS SAY: GO FOR IT

  LOS ANGELES, September 22, 2017 – A strong majority of residents in Los Angeles say they’d support Mayor Eric Garcetti if he chose to run for president, according to a survey by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. The question was asked of Angelenos as part of a wide-ranging survey conducted by the center’s researchers in July. Of those who responded, 63 percent said they would be “strongly supportive” or “somewhat supportive” of Garcetti launching a bid for the White House. “At least in his home town, Mayor Garcetti polls strongly as a potential candidate for president,” said Fernando Guerra, director of the center and a professor of Political Science and Chicana/o Studies. “Naturally, it’s far too soon to tell what kind of support that could translate into outside of Los Angeles. But as of today, he’d have L.A.’s backing.” Recent news reports have speculated that Garcetti may be considering a run in the 2020 presidential election. Last month, he attended a fundraiser and gave a speech in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a presidential primary. He has also appeared at Democratic Party events in Wisconsin and the Center for American Progress’s Ideas Conference in Washington, D.C. The survey culled opinions from 914 respondents throughout Los Angeles County. Support for a hypothetical Garcetti presidential campaign was strongest among Latinos (73 percent), residents aged 30-44 (69 percent), and those earning less than $40,000 a year (74 percent). The only demographic groups mostly opposed to the idea were those with advanced graduate degrees or those earning more than $100,000 annually. Even among residents who self-identified as “conservative,” 51 percent surveyed said they backed the idea of a Garcetti candidacy.

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  LA Residents and the 2028 Olympics

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  ANGELENOS BACK HOSTING 2028 OLYMPICS, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT SURVEY FINDS

  LOS ANGELES, August 1, 2017 – Public support for hosting the 2028 Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles is overwhelming, and nearly as strong as it was for the 2024 Games, according to a survey by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. The survey, conducted July 13-18, found 83 percent of respondents in Los Angeles County said they want L.A. to host the Olympics in 2028. In an LMU survey conducted last year, 88 percent backed the city’s effort to land the 2024 contest. The International Olympic Committee recently decided to name host cities for both the 2024 and 2028 Games at its upcoming meeting in September. Los Angeles officials recently announced an agreement that would let Paris host first, leaving L.A. to host in 2028. “The support among Angelenos for hosting the Summer Olympics remains strong, whether it’s in 2024 or 2028,” said Brianne Gilbert, associate director of the Center. “The vast majority want the Games in L.A.” Local public opinion has consistently favored hosting the Olympics. An IOC poll earlier this year, whose methodology was not disclosed, found 78 percent of respondents in Los Angeles supported the city’s original 2024 bid. The LMU survey reached 600 respondents by phone and online. It found 54 percent “strongly support” the 2028 Olympics, 29 percent “somewhat” supported, 9 percent “somewhat” opposed and 8 percent “strongly” opposed. Among those who backed the bid, the most frequently cited reason was for a perceived economic boost to the region. The survey found no major differences among demographic categories—that is, support for the 2028 Olympics was similar across the board. Additionally, 70 percent of respondents said they’d attend an Olympic event in person if Los Angeles hosted in 2028. But on the other end of the spectrum, 21 percent indicated they would leave town during the Games. The survey was funded by the LA24 Committee, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, and Loyola Marymount University.

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  March 7, 2017 Mayoral Election in Los Angeles

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  GARCETTI EXPECTED TO WIN MARCH 7 ELECTION

  According to Angelenos surveyed this month by Loyola Marymount University’s Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti will win next week’s election for Mayor. The overwhelming support for Garcetti coupled with the expected low voter turnout and the incumbency advantage virtually guarantees a majority win, eliminating the need for a runoff election in May. “Historically, voter turnout for off-year local elections has been extremely low,” said Fernando Guerra, director and professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at LMU. “This means that votes from those who do show up will have even more of an individual impact than those in higher turnout elections.”

  The opinion poll was administered by StudyLA in January and February to 2,400 Los Angeles County residents through a mixed-mode (telephone and online) survey. Those who self-identified as registered voters living in the City of Los Angeles (n=950) were asked, “If the Municipal Election was today, for whom would you vote for mayor?” The major findings include:

  ▪▪ Just over half of self-identified registered voters reported they would vote for Eric Garcetti.

  ▪▪ Almost 40% of self-identified voters reported that they did not know for whom they would vote.

  ▪▪ Of those respondents who selected a candidate, Garcetti’s support increased to 81%.

  “Although we recognize the likely low voter turnout in this election, these results show Garcetti’s considerable influence and reputation in LA, and indicate that he is in a strong position to win the upcoming election,” said Brianne Gilbert, associate director at StudyLA. The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University is one of the leading undergraduate research centers in the nation. The results of this report are part of the Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey, an annual outlook survey looking at quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. The full report will be released at the annual Forecast LA conference on April 19. For more information, please visit: lmu.edu/studyla.

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  Olympics in LA: 2016 Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey Report

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  METHODOLOGY PUBLIC OUTLOOK SURVEY As part of Forecast LA’s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, researchers at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles conduct an outlook survey at the beginning of each year. The LA Region Public Opinion Survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions with more than 2,400 adults living in Los Angeles County. Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. SAMPLING Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather representative input from adult residents within the Los Angeles region, an initial random digit dial (RDD) sample was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by determining the active phone exchanges (the first three numbers of a seven-digit phone number) and blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by the zip codes that comprise the county). A random list of all active residential and cell phone numbers in the area was produced. This method included both listed and unlisted phone numbers. Listed samples were used to meet particular quotas for racial/ethnic categories and geographic location. The margin of error is ±3.0% for the entire sample of 2,425 residents. SCREENERS The protocol for this study involves asking potential respondents a series of questions, referred to as screeners, which were used to ensure that the person lived within the county and were at least 18 years old. The sample size was 1,225 residents from the city of Los Angeles and 1,200 residents from Los Angeles County who live outside the city of LA. The first quota was a random digit dialing of approximately 1,300 residents (with 30% cell phone). Upon completion of each wave, the remaining necessary quotas were determined, and the racial/ethnic and geographic quotas were employed: 400 African American residents, 400 Asian residents, as well as 400 residents from the San Fernando Valley (only within the city of Los Angeles) and 400 residents from the San Gabriel Valley. Given the demographic proportion of Latino and Caucasian residents in the region, both groups were expected to naturally fall out from the initial wave of 1,300 subjects. DATA COLLECTION Telephone interviews were conducted the first four full weeks in January 2016 and first two weeks in February between the hours of 4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on Saturday, and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean. Translators who spoke Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean were available to conduct interviews for residents who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking any of those languages. REPORTING DATA The margin of error is ±3.0%. The 2,425 responses collected in 2016 for this survey are weighted based on respondents’ self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and geographic location matching them to the most recently available population parameters from the American Community Survey estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding, not all rows or columns total 100%. SURVEY APPROVAL Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University. SURVEY FUNDING Funding for this project comes from a variety of donors (including the university’s own internal funds). Donors are not involved in any aspect of project design and data dissemination. All Center funders are aware that their donations can be applied to any one of the numerous research projects the Center conducts. To find out more about the Center’s funders visit www.lmu.edu/studyLA.

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  Census Awareness Data Brief

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Mariya Vizireanu

  Research Question

  Are you aware that the 2020 U.S. Census will take place this year starting on April 1st?

  • Yes – I have been following the news about it

  • Yes – I have heard about it but do not know the details

  • No – I did not know about it

  Highlights

  • Knowledge of the census increases with education (51.6% of residents with less than a high school degree know about it compared to 83.7% of residents with a graduate degree)

  • Liberal residents (78.2%) were more likely to know about it than conservative residents (68.7%)

  • Residents from union households (78.9%) were more likely to know about it than non-union households (69.4%).

  About this Research

  StudyLA’s Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey is the largest general social survey of any one metropolitan area in urban America.

  This question is from the 2020 Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey of over 2,000 adult Los Angeles County residents conducted by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA) in January 2020. The survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions and online surveys. Residents were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues.

  The margin of error is ±3.0% for the entire sample of 2,002 residents. Full report available at LMU.edu/studyLA. For more information: please contact Brianne Gilbert, Associate Director by email at brianne.gilbert@lmu.edu.