StudyLA Data Briefs

Follow

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Governor

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly andmore accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls.

  In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own.

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places in Los Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distribution and the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Governor - Certified Results Update

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places in Los Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distribution and the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day,1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Measure W

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places inLos Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distributionand the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Parcel Tax

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL

  METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places inLos Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distributionand the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Sheriff

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL

  METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places in Los Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distribution and the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for Sheriff - Certified Results Update

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL

  METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places in Los Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distribution and the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  2018 LA Votes for U.S. Senate

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Mariya Vizireanu, Alex Kempler, and Alejandra Alarcon

  2018 GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL

  METHODOLOGY

  As Los Angeles continues to change and grow, accurate exit polling becomes a vital tool for understanding, developing theory on, and improving voter experience, behavior, preferences, and opinions. Los Angeles Votes is a series of exit polls and polling place studies in Los Angeles known for the use of a breakthrough sampling methodology – the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach – and becoming the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation.

  Since 2005, StudyLA has conducted fifteen projects, resulting in some of the most accurate exit polling results of every major election in Los Angeles. Los Angeles Votes began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. StudyLA researchers designed the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns. Voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial or ethnic enclave dissimilar to their own. The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll asked voters about whom they voted for in U.S. Senate, State and Los Angeles County races, how they voted on various propositions, and their overall voting experience at their respective polling places. In addition, voters were asked about various civic concerns. They were also asked for general demographic information such as race/ethnicity, political ideology, education, income, employment status, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  Field researchers collected surveys at 25 polling places located in Los Angeles County. Some polling places served multiple precincts. The polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This sampling methodology results in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in Los Angeles County: white, African American, Latino, Asian American, and mixed precincts.

  SAMPLING

  This study is only of at-poll voters. Field researchers were instructed to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2018 Gubernatorial General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 6, 2018. More than 125 LMU students served as field researchers, distributing surveys in both English and Spanish from 7:00am to 8:00pm at 25 randomly selected polling places inLos Angeles County. Field supervisors collected completed surveys at three times throughout the day. Data entry began on the same day as survey distributionand the remainder was completed the following day. Over the course of Election Day, 1,546 English and Spanish surveys were collected.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0 percent. The 1,546 responses collected in 2018 for this survey are weighted based on respondent self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and political party, matching them to the most recently available population parameters and voting demographic estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  Residents' Views on LAPD and its Policies

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, Alex Kempler, and Mariya Vizireanu

  METHODOLOGIES

  Reported protocols include the methodologies employed by the most recent iterations of the Public Opinion Survey, Exit Poll, and the Riots Survey. Methods for the previous versions of these instruments have been similar and included minimal variations. Details for each year’s methodologies are available upon request.

  LOS ANGELES PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY

  As part of Forecast LA’s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, the Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA) conducted an outlook survey. The Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions and online surveys with more than 2,400 adults (1,800 phone and 600 online) living in Los Angeles County. Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues.

  SAMPLING

  Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather representative input from adult residents within the Los Angeles region, an initial random digit dial (RDD) sample was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by determining the active phone exchanges (the first three numbers of a seven-digit phone number) and blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by the zip codes that comprise the county). A random list of all active residential and cell phone numbers in the area was produced. This method included both listed and unlisted phone numbers. Listed samples were used to meet particular quotas for racial/ethnic categories and geographic location. The online portion was comprised of responses from double opt-in respondents who have agreed to participate in surveys. Real-time sampling and survey publishing services were also used to target respondents outside of the initial reach. Finally, listed samples were used to fill gaps within racial/ethnic and geographic quotas. For all methods, adult respondents in LA County were targeted and then randomly selected within their group.

  SCREENERS

  The protocol for this study involved asking potential respondents a series of questions, referred to as screeners, which were used to ensure that the person lived within the county and was at least 18 years old. The target sample size was 1,200 residents from the city of Los Angeles and 1,200 residents from Los Angeles County who live outside the city of LA. The first quota was a random digit dialing of approximately 750 residents (with 66% cell phone). The online survey ran concurrently with a target sample size of 600 respondents. The remaining racial/ethnic and geographic quotas were determined based on the fallout: 400 African American residents, 600 Asian residents, 400 residents from the San Fernando Valley (only within the city of Los Angeles) and 400 residents from the San Gabriel Valley. Given the demographic proportion of Latino and white residents in the region, as expected, both groups naturally fell out from the initial wave of online and phone respondents.

  DATA COLLECTION

  Telephone surveys were conducted the first four full weeks in January 2017 and first two weeks in February between the hours of 4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on Saturday, and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean. Translators who spoke Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean were available to conduct interviews for residents who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking any of those languages. The online survey ran from January 13 to January 26 and was available in English and Spanish. The margin of error is ±3.0%. The 2,404 responses collected in 2017 for this survey are weighted based on respondents’ self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and geographic location matching them to the most recently available population parameters from the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates.

  LOS ANGELES VOTES EXIT POLL

  As cities like Los Angeles grow in size and diversity, accurately polling voters becomes a vital tool for understanding decisions that improve voters’ perceptions about their quality of life and their choices at the ballot box. Since 2005, the StudyLA “LA Votes” project has conducted eleven exit polls in the Los Angeles area, performing the largest per-capita exit poll in the nation for over ten years. The Los Angeles Votes project began as a response to exit poll discrepancies in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. Ethnic breakdowns from exit polls conducted during these elections skewed Latino voters towards the Republican candidate while no other data supported this trend. The racially stratified homogeneous precinct approach was designed by StudyLA researchers to address this sampling anomaly and more accurately reflect ethnic voting patterns discovered by exit polls. In contrast to conventional sampling methodologies, the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach places an emphasis on location when it LAPD | 15 thomas and dorothy leavey center for the study of los angeles loyola marymount university, 1 lmu drive, suite 4119, los angeles, ca 90045comes to racial and ethnic voting patterns, since voting patterns of a racial or ethnic group living within a racial and ethnic enclave are different from voting patterns of racial and ethnic groups living in racial and ethnic enclaves dissimilar to their own. The 2016 Presidential General Election Exit Poll asked voters whom they voted for and why, as well as how they voted on various propositions. In addition, voters were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. Voters were also asked for general demographic information such as income, race/ethnicity, political ideology, religion, education, etc.

  POLLING PLACE SELECTION

  All polling places were located in the city of Los Angeles. Twenty-five polling places were selected via the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach. Geographic location matching for the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach used the most recently available population figures from the ACS estimates. This sampling methodology resulted in five polling places of each racial/ethnic category in the city of Los Angeles: white, black/African American, Latino, Asian, and mixed racial and ethnic groups.

  SAMPLING

  Field researchers were advised to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey. If that person refused to participate, researchers were instructed to maintain the same skip pattern and continue to ask every other person who exited the polling place to participate in the survey. Some polling places served multiple precincts.

  DATA COLLECTION

  The 2016 Presidential General Election Exit Poll was conducted on November 8, 2016. More than one hundred LMU students served as field researchers, distributing anonymous English and Spanish exit poll surveys in the city of Los Angeles from 7:00 am to 8:00 pm on Election Day. Field supervisors collected completed surveys throughout the day and a majority of the data were entered by 8:00 pm. The remaining surveys were entered in the days following the election. Over the course of Election Day, 2,829 surveys in English and Spanish were collected by field researchers. The margin of error is ±3.0%. The 2,829 responses collected in 2016 for this survey are weighted based on respondents’ self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and geographic location matching them to the most recently available population parameters from the ACS estimates.

  LOS ANGELES RIOTS SURVEY

  In observance of the 5th (1997), 10th (2002), 15th (2007), 20th (2012) and 25th (2017) Anniversary of the LA Riots and Civil Unrest, StudyLA conducted cross-sectional phone surveys of Angelenos and tabulated them to effectively create a longitudinal study of residents’ attitudes toward the city in light of the 1992 Riots. In 2017 StudyLA conducted a survey of 1,203 randomly selected and ethnically represented residents in the city of Los Angeles. The survey was part of the 2017 Public Opinion Survey, using the same methodology. The margin of error is ± 3.0%. The 1,203 responses collected in 2017 for this survey are weighted based on respondents’ self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and geographic location matching them to the most recently available population parameters from the ACS estimates.

• 

  Foothill Gold Line

  Brianne Gilbert, Alex Kempler, and Mariya Vizireanu

  METHODOLOGY

  In Fall 2017, Foothill Gold Line contracted with the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at LMU in order to conduct an intercept survey on parking needs for the Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension. The study involved intercept surveys with 1,518 adults arriving and departing from six stations: South Pasadena, Fillmore, Sierra Madre Village, Azusa Downtown, Monrovia, and Arcadia. An additional 447 respondents completed the survey. However since they started their Foothill Gold Line travels outside the six stations they were removed from much of the analysis. Subjects were surveyed between 3:00 pm-8:00 pm on November 1-2, 7-9, and 14-16, with rotating station assignments and field researchers each day. A team of three to seven student field researchers and one field supervisor surveyed riders at two to three locations each day. The protocol for this study involved asking potential respondents a screener to ensure that the person was at least 18 years old. A skip pattern of every other person was also utilized to ensure unbiased collection of data during a rush of potential respondents. The survey was also translated into Spanish, and Spanish speakers were available to ask screener questions and answer any questions respondents might have. Data are weighted for accuracy based on average onboarding numbers by station, provided by Metro. Those riders who began at a station off of the Foothill Gold Line (both including and not including Union Station) are not included in weighted percentages. For the purposes of this report, numbers by station, including both “other” categories, are included. The margin of error is ±2.0% for the core sample of 1,518 respondents.

  RESEARCH SUMMARY

  The following report consists of five sections: overall weighted toplines, questions by station (including then excluding the “other” categories”), weighted questions by parking cost, and weighted questions by phase. The crosstabs provide insight into parking efficacy at each station, parking efficacy based on the cost of parking at each station, as well as parking efficacy depending on whether the station falls into phase one or phase two. To start, most riders generally drive, bike, walk, or skateboard to their station, while those who do not drive do so because the station is a walkable or bikeable distance, and/or because they do not have a vehicle available. Riders who do arrive by car or motorcycle are likely to park in a Metro structure or lot because of free parking or convenience. However, even at paid parking stations, riders are most likely to park in a Metro parking lot or structure as opposed to parking on the street or in a non-Metro lot/structure. Only about 1 out of 5 riders who start at stations with free parking said that they switched stations after paid parking was implemented to avoid the fees. Yet, a majority of riders still use the station closest to their home, regardless of whether parking is paid or free. For the majority of riders, the distance from home to the closest station is less than 10 minutes, and is less than 20 minutes for nearly everyone else. Finally, Phase 2 stations have a higher proportion of drivers, as well as do stations with free parking lots. The accuracy of these data is indicated by high response rates and low margin of error.

• 

  Garcetti for President

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  GARCETTI FOR PRESIDENT? ANGELENOS SAY: GO FOR IT

  LOS ANGELES, September 22, 2017 – A strong majority of residents in Los Angeles say they’d support Mayor Eric Garcetti if he chose to run for president, according to a survey by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. The question was asked of Angelenos as part of a wide-ranging survey conducted by the center’s researchers in July. Of those who responded, 63 percent said they would be “strongly supportive” or “somewhat supportive” of Garcetti launching a bid for the White House. “At least in his home town, Mayor Garcetti polls strongly as a potential candidate for president,” said Fernando Guerra, director of the center and a professor of Political Science and Chicana/o Studies. “Naturally, it’s far too soon to tell what kind of support that could translate into outside of Los Angeles. But as of today, he’d have L.A.’s backing.” Recent news reports have speculated that Garcetti may be considering a run in the 2020 presidential election. Last month, he attended a fundraiser and gave a speech in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a presidential primary. He has also appeared at Democratic Party events in Wisconsin and the Center for American Progress’s Ideas Conference in Washington, D.C. The survey culled opinions from 914 respondents throughout Los Angeles County. Support for a hypothetical Garcetti presidential campaign was strongest among Latinos (73 percent), residents aged 30-44 (69 percent), and those earning less than $40,000 a year (74 percent). The only demographic groups mostly opposed to the idea were those with advanced graduate degrees or those earning more than $100,000 annually. Even among residents who self-identified as “conservative,” 51 percent surveyed said they backed the idea of a Garcetti candidacy.

• 

  LA Residents and the 2028 Olympics

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  ANGELENOS BACK HOSTING 2028 OLYMPICS, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT SURVEY FINDS

  LOS ANGELES, August 1, 2017 – Public support for hosting the 2028 Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles is overwhelming, and nearly as strong as it was for the 2024 Games, according to a survey by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. The survey, conducted July 13-18, found 83 percent of respondents in Los Angeles County said they want L.A. to host the Olympics in 2028. In an LMU survey conducted last year, 88 percent backed the city’s effort to land the 2024 contest. The International Olympic Committee recently decided to name host cities for both the 2024 and 2028 Games at its upcoming meeting in September. Los Angeles officials recently announced an agreement that would let Paris host first, leaving L.A. to host in 2028. “The support among Angelenos for hosting the Summer Olympics remains strong, whether it’s in 2024 or 2028,” said Brianne Gilbert, associate director of the Center. “The vast majority want the Games in L.A.” Local public opinion has consistently favored hosting the Olympics. An IOC poll earlier this year, whose methodology was not disclosed, found 78 percent of respondents in Los Angeles supported the city’s original 2024 bid. The LMU survey reached 600 respondents by phone and online. It found 54 percent “strongly support” the 2028 Olympics, 29 percent “somewhat” supported, 9 percent “somewhat” opposed and 8 percent “strongly” opposed. Among those who backed the bid, the most frequently cited reason was for a perceived economic boost to the region. The survey found no major differences among demographic categories—that is, support for the 2028 Olympics was similar across the board. Additionally, 70 percent of respondents said they’d attend an Olympic event in person if Los Angeles hosted in 2028. But on the other end of the spectrum, 21 percent indicated they would leave town during the Games. The survey was funded by the LA24 Committee, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, and Loyola Marymount University.

• 

  March 7, 2017 Mayoral Election in Los Angeles

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  GARCETTI EXPECTED TO WIN MARCH 7 ELECTION

  According to Angelenos surveyed this month by Loyola Marymount University’s Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti will win next week’s election for Mayor. The overwhelming support for Garcetti coupled with the expected low voter turnout and the incumbency advantage virtually guarantees a majority win, eliminating the need for a runoff election in May. “Historically, voter turnout for off-year local elections has been extremely low,” said Fernando Guerra, director and professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at LMU. “This means that votes from those who do show up will have even more of an individual impact than those in higher turnout elections.”

  The opinion poll was administered by StudyLA in January and February to 2,400 Los Angeles County residents through a mixed-mode (telephone and online) survey. Those who self-identified as registered voters living in the City of Los Angeles (n=950) were asked, “If the Municipal Election was today, for whom would you vote for mayor?” The major findings include:

  ▪▪ Just over half of self-identified registered voters reported they would vote for Eric Garcetti.

  ▪▪ Almost 40% of self-identified voters reported that they did not know for whom they would vote.

  ▪▪ Of those respondents who selected a candidate, Garcetti’s support increased to 81%.

  “Although we recognize the likely low voter turnout in this election, these results show Garcetti’s considerable influence and reputation in LA, and indicate that he is in a strong position to win the upcoming election,” said Brianne Gilbert, associate director at StudyLA. The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University is one of the leading undergraduate research centers in the nation. The results of this report are part of the Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey, an annual outlook survey looking at quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. The full report will be released at the annual Forecast LA conference on April 19. For more information, please visit: lmu.edu/studyla.

• 

  Race Relations: 2017 Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Alex Kempler

  2017 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY METHODOLOGY

  As part of Forecast LA’s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, the Center for the Study of Los Angeles conducted an outlook survey. The Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions and online surveys with more than 2,400 adults (1,800 phone and 600 online) living in Los Angeles County. Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey Sampling Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather representative input from adult residents within the Los Angeles region, an initial random digit dial (RDD) sample was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by determining the active phone exchanges (the first three numbers of a seven-digit phone number) and blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by the zip codes that comprise the county). A random list of all active residential and cell phone numbers in the area was produced. This method included both listed and unlisted phone numbers. Listed samples were used to meet particular quotas for racial/ethnic categories and geographic location. The online portion was comprised of responses from double opt-in respondents who have agreed to participate in surveys. Real-time sampling and survey publishing services were also used to target respondents outside of the initial reach. Finally, listed samples were used to fill gaps within racial/ethnic and geographic quotas. For all methods, adult respondents in LA County were targeted and then randomly selected within their group.

  SCREENERS

  The protocol for this study involved asking potential respondents a series of questions, referred to as screeners, which were used to ensure that the person lived within the county and was at least 18 years old. The target sample size was 1,200 residents from the city of Los Angeles and 1,200 residents from Los Angeles County who live outside the city of LA. The first quota was a random digit dialing of approximately 750 residents (with 66% cell phone). The online survey ran concurrently with a target sample size of 600 respondents. The remaining racial/ethnic and geographic quotas were determined based on the fallout: 400 African American residents, 600 Asian residents, 400 residents from the San Fernando Valley (only within the city of Los Angeles) and 400 residents from the San Gabriel Valley. Given the demographic proportion of Latino and white residents in the region, as expected, both groups naturally fell out from the initial wave of online and phone respondents.

  DATA COLLECTION

  Telephone surveys were conducted the first four full weeks in January 2017 and first two weeks in February between the hours of 4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on Saturday, and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean. Translators who spoke Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean were available to conduct interviews for residents who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking any of those languages. The online survey ran from January 13 to January 26 and was available in English and Spanish. The margin of error is ±3.0% for the entire sample of 2,404 residents.

• 

  Olympics in LA: 2016 Los Angeles Public Opinion Survey Report

  Fernando J. Guerra, Brianne Gilbert, and Berto Solis

  METHODOLOGY PUBLIC OUTLOOK SURVEY

  As part of Forecast LA’s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, researchers at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles conduct an outlook survey at the beginning of each year. The LA Region Public Opinion Survey involved 20-minute telephone sessions with more than 2,400 adults living in Los Angeles County. Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life perceptions, personal economic wellbeing, economic concerns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues. SAMPLING Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather representative input from adult residents within the Los Angeles region, an initial random digit dial (RDD) sample was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by determining the active phone exchanges (the first three numbers of a seven-digit phone number) and blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by the zip codes that comprise the county). A random list of all active residential and cell phone numbers in the area was produced. This method included both listed and unlisted phone numbers. Listed samples were used to meet particular quotas for racial/ethnic categories and geographic location. The margin of error is ±3.0% for the entire sample of 2,425 residents.

  SCREENERS

  The protocol for this study involves asking potential respondents a series of questions, referred to as screeners, which were used to ensure that the person lived within the county and were at least 18 years old. The sample size was 1,225 residents from the city of Los Angeles and 1,200 residents from Los Angeles County who live outside the city of LA. The first quota was a random digit dialing of approximately 1,300 residents (with 30% cell phone). Upon completion of each wave, the remaining necessary quotas were determined, and the racial/ethnic and geographic quotas were employed: 400 African American residents, 400 Asian residents, as well as 400 residents from the San Fernando Valley (only within the city of Los Angeles) and 400 residents from the San Gabriel Valley. Given the demographic proportion of Latino and Caucasian residents in the region, both groups were expected to naturally fall out from the initial wave of 1,300 subjects. DATA COLLECTION Telephone interviews were conducted the first four full weeks in January 2016 and first two weeks in February between the hours of 4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on Saturday, and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean. Translators who spoke Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean were available to conduct interviews for residents who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking any of those languages.

  REPORTING DATA

  The margin of error is ±3.0%. The 2,425 responses collected in 2016 for this survey are weighted based on respondents’ self-identified racial/ethnic group, gender, age, and geographic location matching them to the most recently available population parameters from the American Community Survey estimates. Datasets are available in Excel and Stata. All numbers represent percentages, unless otherwise indicated. Due to rounding, not all rows or columns total 100%.

  SURVEY APPROVAL

  Approval to begin survey administration was granted from the Institutional Review Board at Loyola Marymount University.

  SURVEY FUNDING

  Funding for this project comes from a variety of donors (including the university’s own internal funds). Donors are not involved in any aspect of project design and data dissemination. All Center funders are aware that their donations can be applied to any one of the numerous research projects the Center conducts. To find out more about the Center’s funders visit www.lmu.edu/studyLA.